With the 2026 Osun gubernatorial contest, slated for Saturday, August 8, 2026, it is not surprising that the jockeying to win the governorship ticket, especially for the All Progressives Congress (APC) is on. Of course, the incumbent governor will clinch the ticket of his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). So, all eyes and interests would be on the APC.

Well, there are two issues of concern here, which must be taken into cognizance in working out the permutations. In the first place, would zoning be an issue? If it is, in what direction and in whose favour? Indeed, this is a tricky proposition for the APC!

If the candidacy is not zoned to the West Senatorial District of the state, it would be tantamount to, by conventional wisdom, shortchanging the West. There is a lacuna here, though: will a victorious candidate from the West pledge to do just a term? If such a pledge is not given, or taken seriously, what would be the attitude of the other zones, or, perhaps, this will not really matter if people are concentrating on bread-and-butter issues relating to their cost of living and their immediate prospects for survival.

The second issue is that, despite the early stage, we haven’t seen a candidate or candidature with a clear programme offering a distinct alternative to the current PDP government. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be widespread disaffection with the PDP government, perhaps just indifference. As Harold Wilson aptly noted, “A week is a long time in politics”, and dynamics can shift rapidly.

So far, the following aspirants appear to have shown interest in contesting for the APC candidacy: Dotun Babayemi (ODB), Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO), Iyiola Omisore, Akin Ogunbiyi, Benedict Gboyega Alabi (BOA), and Mudashiru Husain.

Babayemi is a ‘journey-man-come-lately’ to the race. Will this be a disadvantage? The Gbongan, Osun State-born lawyer and philanthropist has already started vigorous grassroots campaigns, which have been commendably featured on television. However, the snippets don’t reveal a clear, well-worked-out manifesto – perhaps that will come later. For now, connecting with the grassroots base seems to be his main focus.

One contestant who would likely capture a lot of attention and be seen as a frontrunner is Oyebamiji. The 59-year-old, Ikire, Osun State-born seasoned banker and politician holds master’s degrees in Public Administration and Business Administration. A kind-hearted individual, he has worked in various banking institutions and served as Commissioner for Finance in the state under Governors Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola, serving in this role without notable controversy. Currently, he is the Managing Director/CEO of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA).

In particular, Oyebamiji comes with a track record! Even more than two years after leaving office as a competent Finance Commissioner, nobody has claimed that he has his hands in the cooking jar, and that’s a rare feat in Nigeria’s politico-economic landscape, where many former finance commissioners and Heads of Accountants-General’s Office find themselves having ‘useful discussions’ with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and related anti-corruption agencies.

Oyebamiji’s integrity, managerial expertise, and commitment to public service make him an attractive candidate to overcome the challenges of an economy in transition. As a governorship aspirant from the West, his regional roots may shape his governance approach and policies. With community support mobilizing across the state, AMBO’s bid for the APC standard-bearer in the 2026 election gains momentum.

A school of thought views Omisore as a powerful wheeler-dealer from the East who could be a significant interventionist force. However, he has to contend with the zoning hurdle of the ‘Ifè ló kàn’ at a time when the incumbent governor, whom he would challenge, is from the West. A crucial question also remains: Is Omisore still aligned with the central leadership?

Ogunbiyi can also be described as a ‘journey-man-come-lately’. But the Ile-Ogbo, Osun State-born technocrat brings significant value to Osun APC with his unique blend of academic, entrepreneurial and philanthropic experience. As founder of Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc and Arubiewe Educational Foundation, he has demonstrated private-sector managerial prowess and a commitment to community development.

Ogunbiyi’s potential candidacy offers strategic advantages: bridging party factions, promoting issue-based campaigning, and providing a morally authoritative counter-narrative to elitism and corruption accusations. With financial capacity and networks, Ogunbiyi could self-finance and attract outside investment, leveraging his image of integrity and philanthropy.

Alabi, also from Ikire, is the immediate past Deputy Governor of Osun State. He boasts a strong background in economics, finance and governance. With an upbringing that combined academic rigour, entrepreneurial spirit, and community service, he demonstrated a focus on structured development and social order during his tenure from 2018 to 2022.

BOA’s efforts to reform Osun’s education system and manage crises like the COVID-19 pandemic showcased his governance style. The question now is whether his track record is enough to secure a return to Bola Ige House.

Husain’s potential governorship bid is rooted in his impressive track record of service, progressive credentials and academic background. As the former Senator representing Osun West seeks to unseat Governor Adeleke, his commitment to people-focused governance will be put to the test. For example, can he tackle the complexities of Nigeria’s politics, where substance often gives way to populism, and convince Osun voters that his record will translate into effective leadership?

Other candidates to watch out for include Peter Babalola, a charismatic figure with old-school charm and former Chief of Staff to Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola; Kunle Adegoke, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN); and Ajibola Bashiru, the current APC National Secretary. However, while Bashiru is coy about his ambition, Omisore and Babajide Omoworare will need to make a compelling argument for why the party should consider zoning the candidacy outside the West, given the recent completion of Aregbesola’s two-term tenure.

With several aspirants vying for the Osun APC ticket, the question remains: Can the party win the forthcoming governorship race? The answer lies in adopting the right strategy. To achieve this, the party must carefully consider the electoral consequences of its zoning formula, taking into account local sensitivities and electoral permutations. Meanwhile, the electorate should look for candidates with a clear vision and compelling mission that favours social and economic rejuvenation over vacuous posturing.

A winning strategy involves understanding voter behaviour and concerns to develop targeted messages that resonate with the electorate. This can be achieved through a data-driven approach that aggregates demographics, conducts focus groups, and leverages party registers and databases to identify and target specific groups. By adopting this approach, Osun APC aspirants can build a strong electoral majority by connecting with voters on key issues like economy, infrastructure and governance.

The example of James Carville’s strategic approach in Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in the USA is instructive. By framing Clinton’s message and leveraging key issues like economic concerns, Carville helped propel Clinton from one of the poorest states in America to the White House. Similarly, Osun APC aspirants can benefit from a targeted, voter-centric approach that harnesses information technology and data insights to build a winning campaign.

As Leroy Eimes so eloquently puts it, “A leader is one who sees more than others see, who sees farther than others see, and who sees before others see. A leader must be a seer.” This insight is particularly relevant in the current wide-open race, where the aspirant with the most convincing promises, the most elaborate rallies, and the most creative ways to share his vision and wealth with voters will likely emerge victorious.

Put bluntly, success depends on a well-planned approach that addresses the needs and concerns of Osun voters, rather than relying on the usual ineffective, money-misdirected tactics that have become the hallmark of Nigerian politics.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Osun State!

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