With the 2026 Ekiti State governorship election date set, the stage is now ready. The key issue is that incumbent Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, aka BAO, of the All Progressives Congress (APC) appears poised to win unopposed. It is much like a candidate in a parliamentary system who is “returned unopposed” due to a lack of challengers.

Currently, Ekiti State lacks a discernible opposition, which is unfortunate, given its longstanding and much-admired focus on human capital development. It would be an astonishing feat if any discernible opposition could coalesce in the coming months to give the governor a close run. While politics is notoriously unpredictable, with events capable of shifting the landscape rapidly, the current outlook suggests that a game-changer is unlikely.

In the thrilling game of Ekiti governance, all the chips are, as of today’s diagnostics, firmly in Oyebanji’s hands. Many people think that this is deservedly so, and those who think so include many non-APC members as well as those unaffiliated to partisan acrimony. With the June 20, 2026, governorship election on the horizon, it therefore seems improbable that the contest will turn out to be a Nollywood blockbuster.

BAO’s calm mien and disposition has undoubtedly smoothed his path to reelection. His leadership style has been characterized by a pragmatic approach which balances idealism with the practical realities of governance. In many ways, his approach to issues of governance bears a striking resemblance to President Theodore Roosevelt’s often-quoted philosophy of “speaking softly and carrying a big stick.

By wielding this “big stick” judiciously, the Ikogosi, Ekiti State-born consummate politician has made impactful interventions without resorting to force or unnecessarily stepping on toes. A prime example is his initiative to establish, or, revive, as it were, commodity boards and exchanges in the agriculture sector. This initiative portrays astute thinking and strategic acumen.

The establishment of commodity boards in Ekiti State is poised to be a paradigm-shifting move. By introducing minimum farm gate price guarantees, storage facilities, and potentially cold storage facilities in urban markets, these boards have the potential to catalyze a transformative impact on farm productivity. Under Oyebanji’s leadership, critical thinking is being translated into transformative practice, thus yielding tangible benefits for the state.

In his almost three years in office, Oyebanji has made a significant impact on Ekiti State. Key achievements include securing an $80 million AfDB fund for the Ekiti Knowledge Zone (EKZ) project, empowering MSMEs with grants and credit, and restoring electricity to over 20 communities.

Building on these initiatives, his administration has recruited 1,300 primary school teachers, invested N14 billion in the renovation and construction of 203 public schools, and paid N546.9 million in WASSCE examination fees for 16,269 students. Healthcare facilities have been upgraded, and infrastructure projects such as road construction and flood control have been undertaken.

Oyebanji has also cleared salary arrears, strengthened security, and fostered a peaceful political climate. The populace has responded positively to the governor’s initiatives. This positive sentiment is profound, with no signs of widespread discontent or significant protests against government policies. In a state that, in some period, experienced flashes of turbulence, BAO’s leadership has marked a remarkable turnaround.

In an era marked by performative politics, Oyebanji’s commitment to genuine leadership has demonstrated the effectiveness of substance over spectacle. Given his impressive track record, the governor’s trajectory suggests a strong likelihood of reelection, rendering the notion of an ‘opposition’ seemingly inconsequential as their efforts appear futile against his governance paradigm. A properly conducted opinion poll – and there should be one – would most likely place his approval ratings above the 60% mark, underscoring the electorate’s appreciation for his commitment to substantive governance.

Again, the unfolding narrative of Ekiti State’s politics presents a compelling conundrum. The opposition’s ability to coalesce and mount a challenge against Oyebanji’s quietly effective governance will be a telling test of their mettle. Can they transcend their internal fissures and capitalize on the unpredictability of politics to orchestrate a stunning reversal of fortunes? If they get a miracle, it will be quite a blockbuster, one that would highlight the inherent uncertainties of democratic processes.

As of today, the conventional wisdom is that Oyebanji, with steady gains, is coasting home to a clear-cut, decisive victory. However, he would do well to resist complacency and continue working tirelessly to secure his win and fulfill his leadership responsibilities. Complacency can be a treacherous path, and maintaining momentum is crucial.

BAO’s Town Hall meetings across the senatorial districts have been effective, and continuing this engagement with the people will be key to his success. The governor must continue to interact with the people, listen to their complaints, take their questions and provide solutions to their problems. He should even go as far as institutionalising the meetings on the radio and television stations.

The example of Bill Clinton, who was still firing Executive Orders minutes into the expiration of his tenure as the 42^nd US President, illustrates the importance of sustained effort. Even with a weak opposition, Oyebanji must stay vigilant, as the electorate’s attention span is short-lived. By continually highlighting his accomplishments and addressing the people’s concerns, he can build a strong foundation for his leadership.

For those who care to know, Oyebanji’s media strategy has been exemplary; and his media team has demonstrated innovative thinking and a deep understanding of the governor’s vision. Matter-of-factly, the team has elevated the narrative of governance and demonstrated the power of strategic communication.

Nevertheless, a leader’s narrative must be continually reinforced to stay ahead of shifting public opinion. In other words, there’s room for an amplified public presentation of the governor’s achievements, especially as 2026 approaches. It cannot be enough, but mere sufficiency can be problematic.

The experience of former UK Prime Minister John Major serves as a valuable lesson. Despite his impressive performance in office. As Niccolò Machiavelli noted, politics hinges on constant reminders.  Major lost the reelection to Tony Blair due to ineffective communication. Oyebanji would benefit from consistently telling the stories of his impactful initiatives. He must ensure that they remain at the forefront of public discourse.

The stories of MKO Abiola and President Bola Tinubu also speak to the media’s profound impact on historical memory and leadership narratives. While Abiola’s legacy endures despite being ‘The President Who Never Ruled’, Tinubu’s strategic media presence, even after leaving office as Lagos State governor in 2007, has bolstered his influence. Oyebanji can draw valuable lessons from these examples, particularly in harnessing effective media deployment to foster public trust.

Against this backdrop, recent baseless reports of the governor’s alleged ties to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) epitomize the malicious politicking that often surfaces during critical times. Given that these claims aim to drive a wedge between the governor and the president, Oyebanji’s need for consistent and engaging media interactions with the public has never been more pressing.

In politics, visibility is crucial, and proactive media engagement can make all the difference. No matter how acceptable a man may be in the eyes of the people, every genuine leader has opponents lurking in the shadows. Even in the home, there can be saboteurs, malcontents, or others, who – often motivated by personal grievances or disaffection – seek to undermine efforts or create discord.

Just as Nehemiah encountered Sanballat and Tobias, Oyebanji may face unexpected challengers. These adversaries can be relentless, with professional propagandists capable of creating significant trouble. Therefore, the watchmen must remain vigilant while the governor focuses on infrastructure and reasonable politics. The defensive and offensive strategies need to be proactive to counter the misinformation and distractions that will likely arise, including false claims about BAO’s supposed shift to the ADC.

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

*KOMOLAFE wrote in from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State, Nigeria (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk; 08033614419 – SMS only)